Fri, Nov 17, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 04 | 110 | 120 |
| DET | 08 | 113 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:05DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Darren Helm · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 5:50BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Victor Antipin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 8:36DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 15:54DETDylan LarkinAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:35BUFNathan Beaulieu: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:30DETTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:49BUFJordan Nolan: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:23BUFEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:36BUFSeth Griffith: Holding2 min
- P2 19:23DETDarren Helm: Interference2 min
- P3 3:04BUFJordan Nolan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Pominville – Larsson – Griffith7:24
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Nolan – Girgensons – Criscuolo4:51
xG 0.13–0.46 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel10:49
xG 0.11–0.76 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Okposo – O'Reilly12:20
xG 0.18–0.93 (16%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Antipin5:20
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Gorges – Antipin11:23
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Falk – Scandella9:15
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Glendening8:15
xG 0.83–0.08 (92%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin4:16
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha7:21
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist2:27
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson14:13
xG 1.02–0.15 (87%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Green – Ouellet10:13
xG 0.68–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Jensen6:35
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).