Sat, Dec 9, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 316 | 16 | 03 | 425 |
| PIT | 014 | 214 | 18 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23TORConnor BrownAssists: Morgan Rielly, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 1:42TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 12:55TORTyler BozakAssists: Mitch Marner, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–0
- P2 14:24PITRiley SheahanAssists: Dominik Simon, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 17:51PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 18:13TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 17:12PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:18TORAuston Matthews: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:44TORAndreas Borgman: Interference2 min
- P2 1:38PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:15TORDominic Moore: Holding2 min
- P2 16:10TORZach Hyman: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:26
xG 1.63–0.28 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri11:37
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Moore – Martin – Nylander4:07
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews14:03
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Borgman9:33
xG 1.63–0.06 (96%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:57
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:55
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon5:43
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel5:57
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Sheahan – Simon2:15
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 1–1
- Reaves – Hagelin – Rowney3:09
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin15:46
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Maatta15:34
xG 0.27–1.05 (21%)attempts 14–20goals 0–2
- Cole – Ruhwedel13:06
xG 0.13–1.63 (7%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).