Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 111 | 116 | 01 | 334 |
| COL | 17 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:24COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:55TORMatt MartinAssists: Josh Leivo, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:29COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:04TORRoman PolakAssists: Andreas Borgman, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:34COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:05TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:25COLJ.T. CompherPPGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:15TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:53COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:58COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:44TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:35TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:33TORConnor Brown: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Martin – Leivo7:18
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Brown9:15
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:47
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:06
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Borgman11:07
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Marincin13:08
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Polak3:33
xG 0.03–0.04 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:59
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Jost6:27
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Compher8:45
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:40
xG 0.02–0.28 (6%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov12:37
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Nemeth3:19
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Barberio – Nemeth11:06
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).