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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 29, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.

COL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:17Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Pickard
  3. P1 1:27Shot by Nemeth, saved by Pickard
  4. P1 2:57Shot by Wilson, saved by Pickard
  5. P1 3:58Shot by Landeskog, saved by Pickard
  6. P1 6:15Marner: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: COL Comeau, Soderberg, Johnson, Bourque, Zadorov · TOR Polak, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Marner, Borgman

  7. P1 11:11Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Pickard
  8. P1 11:24Goal by MacKinnon (Landeskog)+20 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen · TOR Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews

  9. P1 14:55Goal by Martin (Leivo, Polak)+21 pts WP

    On ice: COL Comeau, Johnson, Kerfoot, Compher, Lindholm · TOR Moore, Polak, Martin, Leivo, Borgman

  10. P1 15:10Shot by Brown, saved by Varlamov
  11. P1 16:53Comeau: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Comeau, Soderberg, Johnson, Nieto, Zadorov · TOR van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Marincin, Marner

  12. P1 17:41Shot by Gardiner, saved by Varlamov4v5
  13. P1 18:16Shot by Marner, saved by Varlamov4v5
  14. P1 19:05Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  15. P1 19:13Shot by Hainsey, saved by Varlamov
  16. P1 19:25Shot by Johnson, saved by Pickard
  17. P1 0:00Period end
  18. P2 0:00Period start
  19. P2 0:58Rantanen: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen · TOR Gardiner, Bozak, Marincin, Hyman, Matthews

  20. P2 1:03Shot by Rielly, saved by Varlamov4v5
  21. P2 1:15Shot by Matthews, saved by Varlamov4v5
  22. P2 1:34Shot by Matthews, saved by Varlamov4v5
  23. P2 1:54Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Varlamov4v5
  24. P2 2:49Shot by Matthews, saved by Varlamov4v5
  25. P2 3:56Shot by Andrighetto, saved by Pickard
  26. P2 4:37Shot by Brown, saved by Varlamov
  27. P2 7:01Shot by Rantanen, saved by Pickard
  28. P2 7:54Shot by Brown, saved by Varlamov
  29. P2 8:08Shot by Komarov, saved by Varlamov
  30. P2 8:47Shot by Barberio, saved by Pickard
  31. P2 10:29Goal by Rantanen (MacKinnon, Zadorov)+23 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Nemeth, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen · TOR Marleau, Hainsey, Komarov, Rielly, Brown

  32. P2 12:09Shot by Barberio, saved by Pickard
  33. P2 13:56Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  34. P2 14:04Goal by Polak (Borgman, Marleau)+23 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Johnson, Wilson, Nemeth, Nieto · TOR Marleau, Polak, Komarov, Brown, Borgman

  35. P2 14:44Marner: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Wilson, Bourque, Lindholm, Jost, Girard · TOR Polak, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Marner, Borgman

  36. P2 16:19Shot by Johnson, saved by Pickard5v4
  37. P2 17:56Shot by Landeskog, saved by Pickard
  38. P2 18:31Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  39. P2 18:52Shot by Andrighetto, saved by Pickard
  40. P2 0:00Period end
  41. P3 0:00Period start
  42. P3 0:42Shot by Johnson, saved by Pickard
  43. P3 1:12Shot by Hyman, saved by Varlamov
  44. P3 2:52Shot by Leivo, saved by Varlamov
  45. P3 2:57Shot by Polak, saved by Varlamov
  46. P3 4:34Goal by Kerfoot (Zadorov, MacKinnon)+27 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Kerfoot, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen · TOR Marleau, Polak, Komarov, Rielly, Brown

  47. P3 4:51Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  48. P3 6:18Shot by Moore, saved by Varlamov
  49. P3 7:21Shot by Nemeth, saved by Pickard
  50. P3 7:35Polak: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Barberio, Nemeth, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen · TOR Hainsey, Polak, Hyman, Nylander, Matthews

  51. P3 7:40Shot by Johnson, saved by Pickard5v4
  52. P3 8:43Shot by Rantanen, saved by Pickard5v4
  53. P3 10:30Shot by Jost, saved by Pickard
  54. P3 10:43Shot by Matthews, saved by Varlamov
  55. P3 11:18Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Varlamov
  56. P3 11:54Shot by Bozak, saved by Varlamov
  57. P3 12:25Shot by Brown, saved by Varlamov
  58. P3 12:48Shot by Nylander, saved by Varlamov
  59. P3 13:17Shot by Bourque, saved by Pickard
  60. P3 14:08Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov
  61. P3 16:37Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Pickard
  62. P3 16:44Shot by Marner, saved by Varlamov
  63. P3 16:58Shot by Rantanen, saved by Pickard
  64. P3 17:15Shot by Matthews, saved by Varlamov
  65. P3 17:25Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Varlamov5v6
  66. P3 17:36Shot by Marner, saved by Varlamov5v6
  67. P3 18:05Goal by van Riemsdyk (Rielly, Gardiner)5v6+39 pts WP

    On ice: COL Comeau, Soderberg, Barberio, Compher, Zadorov · TOR Marleau, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Rielly, Marner

  68. P3 0:00Period end
  69. OT 0:00Period start
  70. OT 0:14Shot by Marleau, saved by Varlamov3v3
  71. OT 1:33Brown: Interference (2 min)3v3

    On ice: COL Andrighetto, MacKinnon, Zadorov · TOR Hainsey, Bozak, Brown

  72. OT 1:43Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Pickard4v3
  73. OT 2:08Shot by Johnson, saved by Pickard4v3
  74. OT 2:35Shot by Johnson, saved by Pickard4v3
  75. OT 3:25Goal by Compher (Girard, Soderberg)4v3+43 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Kerfoot, Compher, Girard · TOR Hainsey, Polak, Hyman

  76. OT 3:25Period end4v3
  77. OT 3:25Final4v3