Sat, Jan 20, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 012 | 39 | 433 |
| OTT | 04 | 38 | 06 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26TORZach HymanAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 3:08OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mark Stone, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 7:12OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Cody Ceci, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:05OTTTom PyattSHAssists: Zack Smith, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 2:53TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 4:21TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 8:58TORConnor CarrickGWGAssists: Leo Komarov, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:49OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 1:50TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:42OTTRyan Dzingel: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:42TORAndreas Borgman: Interference2 min
- P2 17:42OTTRyan Dzingel: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:38TORTyler Bozak: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:01OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews12:35
xG 1.10–0.21 (84%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:24
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:11
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Martin – Gauthier – Marner5:25
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Gardiner17:44
xG 0.96–0.16 (86%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Carrick – Dermott15:05
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Polak – Borgman11:43
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Duchene – White3:40
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Burrows – Pyatt – Smith2:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene8:12
xG 0.28–0.25 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone4:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Ceci2:41
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Borowiecki2:07
xG 0.05–0.02 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Chabot3:26
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).