Tue, Feb 13, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 114 | 19 | 16 | 329 |
| BUF | 19 | 212 | 212 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25BUFNick BaptisteAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 13:23TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 1:16BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
- P2 13:19TBLVladislav NamestnikovUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 15:47BUFScott WilsonAssists: Casey Nelson, Victor Antipin · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 3:41BUFRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 11:36TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–4
- P3 19:52BUFSam ReinhartENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:10BUFScott Wilson: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 16:12BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00TBLSlater Koekkoek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:07TBLAdam Erne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:49BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:56BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:21TBLJake Dotchin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:32BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rodrigues won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kucherov – Point13:06
xG 0.65–0.41 (62%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Namestnikov – Gourde2:01
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Peca – Namestnikov – Erne4:17
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Johnson – Gourde6:41
xG 0.07–0.12 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin9:13
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman3:29
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Dotchin3:44
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Girgensons – Baptiste6:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson9:28
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Okposo – Kane – Rodrigues11:21
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart12:35
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Nelson12:00
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Falk – Antipin8:49
xG 0.13–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Antipin2:18
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).