Tue, Mar 6, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 118 | 114 | 216 | 01 | 449 |
| TBL | 29 | 212 | 011 | 11 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Andrej Sustr, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:51TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 18:23FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:27TBLYanni GourdeAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 13:35FLANick BjugstadAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 16:07TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 0:21FLANick BjugstadAssists: Mike Matheson, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 5:25FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 2:49TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:07TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:07FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:04TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:53TBLAndrej Sustr: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov16:54
xG 1.21–0.32 (79%)attempts 25–14goals 3–0
- Brickley – McCann – Mamin6:48
xG 0.36–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Trocheck – Huberdeau4:43
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:55
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad19:37
xG 1.43–0.44 (76%)attempts 27–17goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Weegar12:56
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Weegar2:38
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Gourde – Point15:17
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 19–20goals 3–1
- Johnson – Conacher – Erne10:37
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Cirelli8:46
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov14:42
xG 0.49–1.08 (31%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev14:19
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 3–0
- Girardi – Sergachev2:38
xG 0.21–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman3:21
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).