Tue, Mar 20, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 212 | 06 | 330 |
| TBL | 06 | 112 | 37 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:06TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mitch Marner, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:29TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 15:41TORZach HymanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 16:40TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 1:24TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Yanni Gourde, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 3:32TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 9:14TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:04TORJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:04TBLRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:31TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:57TORConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:46TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown9:41
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – Johnsson – Nylander11:10
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Plekanec – Leivo – Kapanen6:46
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner10:51
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Dermott12:31
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner14:58
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Rielly12:47
xG 0.21–0.96 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Miller9:46
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli5:40
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Stamkos – Erne2:50
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Erne4:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev9:45
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman14:31
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Coburn – Stralman2:07
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).