Wed, Mar 21, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 215 | 05 | 29 | 429 |
| BUF | 113 | 011 | 06 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38ARIDylan StromePPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Brendan Perlini · Deflected, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 11:42BUFJordan NolanAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Nathan Beaulieu · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 17:44ARIDerek StepanPPGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 6:32ARIRichard PanikAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 19:50ARIMax DomiENAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:46BUFJack Eichel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:54BUFNathan Beaulieu: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:50ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:24ARIDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:34ARIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:17BUFJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17ARIMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:10BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Domi – Dvorak9:01
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller7:48
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Perlini – Fischer – Strome7:08
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook11:13
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Connauton11:10
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun10:55
xG 0.75–0.65 (53%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Schenn9:40
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNolan – Baptiste – Rodrigues3:48
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Eichel2:56
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Larsson3:01
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Baptiste – Rodrigues2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Nelson9:18
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Falk – Beaulieu6:04
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Falk – Guhle6:08
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).