Sat, Mar 24, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 219 | 111 | 341 |
| TOR | 115 | 18 | 26 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:30TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:32DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 9:37DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:19TORConnor BrownAssists: Travis Dermott, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 4:58DETFrans NielsenAssists: Luke Witkowski, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–2
- P3 7:27TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 12:34TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:50DETDarren Helm: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:50TORZach Hyman: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:14TORConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:02DETTyler Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P1 9:26DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:24DETHenrik Zetterberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:47DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi12:56
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou10:22
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:45
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Glendening – Frk – Svechnikov5:08
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser12:49
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Daley – Ericsson14:17
xG 0.91–0.43 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Jensen2:18
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Johnsson – Kapanen8:01
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:53
xG 0.84–1.01 (46%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:52
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner11:27
xG 0.27–0.89 (24%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Dermott10:47
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:32
xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:36
xG 0.42–1.24 (26%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).