Wed, Oct 10, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 39 | 320 | 745 |
| OTT | 114 | 212 | 19 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Chris Tierney, Maxime Lajoie · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:44PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 1:20OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 3:04PHISean CouturierAssists: Radko Gudas, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 6:35PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 11:13OTTMaxime LajoiePPAssists: Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 15:45PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Dale Weise, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 4:08PHIRobert HaggGWGAssists: Michael Raffl, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 12:37PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.23 xG6–3
- P3 17:08OTTMaxime LajoiePPAssists: Chris Tierney, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.18 xG6–4
- P3 19:25PHIScott LaughtonENAssists: Jakub Voracek, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.75 xG7–4
Penalties (24)
- P1 1:04OTTMikkel Boedker: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:42PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:57PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:01OTTDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09OTTChris Wideman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:05PHIMichael Raffl: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:19OTTAlex Formenton: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:19PHIJori Lehtera: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:19PHIJori Lehtera: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17PHIRobert Hagg: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17OTTAlex Formenton: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17PHIOskar Lindblom: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17PHIJori Lehtera: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17OTTChris Tierney: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17PHIRobert Hagg: Interference2 min
- P2 15:04OTTRyan Dzingel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:29OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:29OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:29PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:29OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:18PHIDale Weise: Interference2 min
- P3 16:58PHIJori Lehtera: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Lehtera – Weise – Raffl3:32
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier9:29
xG 0.69–0.76 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Lehtera – Lindblom – Konecny6:10
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Laughton – Vorobyev6:13
xG 0.06–0.23 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Provorov3:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim6:44
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Hagg11:14
xG 0.42–0.85 (33%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Duchene – Tkachuk5:23
xG 1.01–0.11 (90%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Stone – Dzingel5:45
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Formenton4:55
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – White2:57
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman8:31
xG 0.66–0.08 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lajoie11:23
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot10:39
xG 0.08–0.52 (14%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).