Sat, Nov 3, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 19 | 112 | 229 |
| BUF | 313 | 421 | 27 | 941 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Casey Nelson, Vladimir Sobotka · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:28BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 14:25BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P2 5:06BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P2 5:19BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Patrik Berglund, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 6:37OTTMax McCormickAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 7:06BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–6
- P2 7:48BUFConor ShearyAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–7
- P3 5:41BUFPatrik BerglundAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–8
- P3 13:13BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Conor Sheary, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.04 xG1–9
- P3 14:14OTTCody CeciAssists: Thomas Chabot, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–9
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:13BUFVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min
- P2 3:21OTTChristian Jaros: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:35OTTRyan Dzingel: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:11OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:42BUFJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:42OTTColin White: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ryan – Tierney – Paul7:02
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Boedker – McCormick – White6:09
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – White2:04
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Paajarvi – Tierney3:02
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Jaros8:18
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Burgdoerfer – Ceci2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot2:54
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel8:52
xG 1.67–0.06 (96%)attempts 11–8goals 3–1
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons12:24
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Sobotka – Okposo – Rodrigues10:47
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt13:22
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Scandella12:17
xG 1.56–0.31 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen11:14
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Scandella – Nelson3:37
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).