Thu, Nov 15, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 312 | 07 | 426 |
| PIT | 214 | 18 | 09 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:49PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.29 xG0–2
- P1 19:57TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 0:41TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 1:28TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 4:29PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 7:56TBLYanni GourdePPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:04TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:25TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:56PITJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:56TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:05TBLMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:11TBLRyan Callahan: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:11PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:37PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:47PITMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:27PITGarrett Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:33TBLMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:52PITJamie Oleksiak: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:53PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Johnson – Gourde – Point9:06
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller9:48
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne7:22
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli11:04
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman9:51
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:06
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:45
xG 0.04–0.54 (7%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Pearson10:38
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Rust – Simon3:47
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kessel – Grant – Guentzel6:14
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Aston-Reese5:03
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ruhwedel10:54
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Maatta11:40
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel2:13
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).