Thu, Nov 29, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 27 | 15 | 110 | 422 |
| TBL | 316 | 09 | 212 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59TBLDan GirardiAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 8:42BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Remi Elie · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 9:45BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 10:28TBLAlex KillornAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P1 15:55TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 5:39BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jack Eichel, Casey Nelson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 2:29BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 4:12TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 14:19TBLCedric PaquetteGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:44TBLMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:50BUFJack Eichel: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00BUFNathan Beaulieu: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:45BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:05BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:37TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:25
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Larsson – Girgensons – Elie10:54
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:16
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Pominville – Sobotka – Rodrigues8:58
xG 0.00–0.60 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNelson – Dahlin2:33
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Nelson2:01
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin8:40
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli7:51
xG 1.04–0.07 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Gourde – Joseph7:30
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Callahan – Palat – Paquette8:55
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde2:32
xG 0.14–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman6:02
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev7:11
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Coburn – Hedman2:34
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).