Thu, Nov 29, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
85%
TBL winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Skinner–Reinhart–Eichel | Larsson–Girgensons–Elie | Okposo–Thompson–Mittelstadt | Pominville–Sobotka–Rodrigues | Bogosian–Dahlin | Ristolainen–Dahlin | Bogosian–Beaulieu | Beaulieu–Nelson | McCabe–Ristolainen | Ristolainen–Nelson | Nelson–Dahlin | Bogosian–Nelson | Bogosian–Ristolainen | Beaulieu–Ristolainen | Beaulieu–Dahlin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson–Kucherov–Point | 8:250.38–0.29 | 1:050.00–0.08 | 0:530.07–0.00 | 3:020.21–0.22 | 3:150.18–0.11 | 2:050.03–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.12 | 1:070.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Callahan–Palat–Paquette | 0:410.00–0.01 | 4:100.04–0.10 | 1:100.00–0.03 | 2:430.14–0.00 | 2:410.09–0.01 | 1:510.02–0.03 | 0:480.02–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:180.12–0.03 | 0:370.00–0.08 | 0:460.08–0.00 | ||||
| Killorn–Miller–Cirelli | 2:030.12–0.00 | 2:150.44–0.04 | 2:290.37–0.02 | 1:150.37–0.00 | 1:450.00–0.02 | 0:530.02–0.00 | 1:450.48–0.04 | 0:540.06–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:390.11–0.00 | |||||
| Stamkos–Gourde–Joseph | 1:370.00–0.01 | 1:160.04–0.03 | 3:520.34–0.00 | 1:090.00–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.00 | 2:350.23–0.04 | 0:590.10–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Stamkos–Palat–Gourde | 1:140.05–0.09 | 0:570.09–0.00 | 0:340.09–0.00 | 0:520.05–0.07 | |||||||||||
| Callahan–Palat–Cirelli | |||||||||||||||
| Coburn–Sergachev | 0:590.06–0.00 | 1:330.00–0.01 | 1:150.00–0.04 | 2:510.34–0.00 | 1:040.00–0.00 | 1:140.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.01 | 0:300.06–0.00 | 2:210.23–0.04 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | ||||
| Coburn–Girardi | 0:420.06–0.00 | 1:180.04–0.03 | 2:360.00–0.17 | 1:230.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 1:050.02–0.03 | 1:300.02–0.10 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:540.06–0.00 | 1:120.00–0.08 | |||||
| Hedman–Cernak | 3:580.16–0.13 | 1:260.02–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.02 | 1:480.11–0.16 | 2:450.01–0.08 | 0:470.03–0.00 | |||||||||
| Girardi–Hedman | 1:180.04–0.06 | 1:590.41–0.00 | 1:270.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 1:110.04–0.06 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 1:140.41–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Coburn–Cernak | 1:050.00–0.01 | 1:010.00–0.04 | 1:330.10–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:490.07–0.01 | 1:170.00–0.00 | 1:010.05–0.04 | 0:460.04–0.00 | |||||||
| Girardi–Sergachev | 1:370.05–0.16 | 1:340.21–0.03 | 0:520.06–0.00 | 1:510.27–0.03 | 0:380.05–0.07 | 0:400.00–0.08 | |||||||||
| Hedman–Sergachev | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.06 | 1:050.07–0.00 | 1:330.07–0.06 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:330.08–0.00 | ||||||||
| McDonagh–Cernak | 3:130.05–0.12 | 1:040.05–0.09 | 0:590.00–0.12 | 1:250.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Coburn–Hedman | 1:010.13–0.00 | 0:540.11–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 1:120.11–0.00 | 1:010.13–0.00 | ||||||||||
| McDonagh–Sergachev | 0:470.12–0.00 | 0:470.12–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus RistolainenBUF | 31 | 28:52 | 0:56 | 2:41 | 3 | 6 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 29 | 26:55 | 0:56 | 1:49 | 5 | 2 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 29 | 25:51 | 0:53 | 1:37 | 2 | 4 |
 Zach BogosianBUF | 27 | 25:05 | 0:56 | 2:00 | 2 | 6 |
 Braydon CoburnTBL | 26 | 23:10 | 0:53 | 1:58 | 3 | 2 |
 Mikhail SergachevTBL | 27 | 21:36 | 0:48 | 1:33 | 6 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 25 | 21:06 | 0:51 | 2:26 | 6 | 3 |
 Sam ReinhartBUF | 25 | 20:27 | 0:49 | 1:36 | 8 | 0 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 24 | 20:17 | 0:51 | 1:29 | 6 | 3 |
 Dan GirardiTBL | 22 | 20:07 | 0:55 | 2:37 | 5 | 1 |
 Jack EichelBUF | 26 | 19:44 | 0:46 | 1:36 | 8 | 0 |
 Jeff SkinnerBUF | 24 | 19:17 | 0:48 | 1:51 | 7 | 1 |
 Tyler JohnsonTBL | 23 | 18:21 | 0:48 | 2:18 | 5 | 0 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 22 | 18:06 | 0:49 | 1:29 | 5 | 2 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 24 | 16:59 | 0:42 | 1:15 | 2 | 3 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 23 | 16:34 | 0:43 | 1:29 | 5 | 3 |
 Casey NelsonBUF | 24 | 15:38 | 0:39 | 1:10 | 0 | 4 |
 Nathan BeaulieuBUF | 22 | 15:30 | 0:42 | 1:32 | 3 | 2 |
 Vladimir SobotkaBUF | 25 | 14:55 | 0:36 | 1:10 | 2 | 6 |
 Ondrej PalatTBL | 20 | 14:22 | 0:43 | 1:24 | 4 | 0 |
 Evan RodriguesBUF | 25 | 14:20 | 0:34 | 1:10 | 1 | 5 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 18 | 14:07 | 0:47 | 1:20 | 0 | 6 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 18 | 13:19 | 0:44 | 1:19 | 4 | 0 |
 Cedric PaquetteTBL | 21 | 13:03 | 0:37 | 1:24 | 2 | 6 |
 Remi ElieBUF | 18 | 12:59 | 0:43 | 1:20 | 0 | 6 |
 Johan LarssonBUF | 19 | 12:54 | 0:41 | 1:20 | 0 | 6 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 17 | 12:15 | 0:43 | 1:18 | 2 | 0 |
 Ryan CallahanTBL | 18 | 12:13 | 0:41 | 1:06 | 2 | 1 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 18 | 11:52 | 0:40 | 1:19 | 4 | 1 |
 J.T. MillerTBL | 17 | 11:50 | 0:42 | 1:19 | 4 | 0 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 18 | 11:33 | 0:39 | 1:11 | 3 | 1 |
 Mathieu JosephTBL | 17 | 11:30 | 0:41 | 1:13 | 4 | 2 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 17 | 11:28 | 0:40 | 1:11 | 2 | 0 |
 Jason PominvilleBUF | 18 | 10:53 | 0:36 | 1:14 | 1 | 3 |
 Jake McCabeBUF | 11 | 7:29 | 0:41 | 1:04 | 0 | 2 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 6 | 4:59 | 0:50 | 1:27 | 0 | 1 |