Tue, Dec 4, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 210 | 111 | 12 | 430 |
| BUF | 014 | 112 | 211 | 04 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:33TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 14:01BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 19:50TORJake GardinerAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 2:39BUFJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 12:57BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 14:47TORPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- OT 4:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:19TORConnor Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:16BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:44TORPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner15:06
xG 0.87–0.33 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Kadri – Brown – Johnsson10:40
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Ennis – Gauthier – Lindholm4:48
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews14:30
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Rielly16:13
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov13:22
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:44
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt9:58
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:02
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 3–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons9:00
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Sobotka – Rodrigues – Thompson11:24
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Pilut3:32
xG 0.29–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin7:15
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Pilut2:25
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).