Tue, Dec 4, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
39%
9%
10%
42%
BUF winsTOR wins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 25:50 | 0.09 | 59.5% | +40.5 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 24:48 | 0.17 | 65.8% | +72.3 | |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 5 | 23:22 | 0.35 | 46.4% | +109.1 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:20 | 0.09 | 67.1% | +25.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 22:00 | 0.75 | 67.1% | +25.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:31 | 0.03 | 56.8% | +21.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 1 | 20:22 | 0.03 | 42.2% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:20 | 0.21 | 50.5% | +40.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 1 | 19:07 | 0.13 | 34.9% | +46.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 0.00 | 63.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:10 | 0.06 | 47.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 16:57 | 0.00 | 70.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 14:11 | 0.21 | 60.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:48 | 0.01 | 47.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 12:38 | 0.22 | 49.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 6:52 | 0.00 | 46.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 5:49 | 0.33 | 49.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 5:23 | 0.04 | 51.5% | 0.0 |
| W | 41 | 38 | 3 | .927 | 2.60 | −0.4 | 64:57 |
Buffalo Sabres
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29:15 | 0.17 | 39.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 27:00 | 0.32 | 58.2% | +50.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 26:34 | 0.09 | 33.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:49 | 0.02 | 59.4% | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 8 | 21:49 | 0.65 | 60.4% | +64.8 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 21:35 | 0.09 | 48.4% | +61.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 18:32 | 0.16 | 54.3% | +26.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 5 | 16:57 | 0.28 | 35.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 16:55 | 0.15 | 44.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 15:33 | 0.18 | 56.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0.00 | 42.1% | +23.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:10 | 0.03 | 30.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 13:27 | 0.01 | 47.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 12:28 | 0.13 | 34.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 12:20 | 0.06 | 50.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 12:07 | 0.13 | 42.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 10:27 | 0.12 | 34.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | 0.00 | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| O | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 2.73 | −1.3 | 64:57 |