Tue, Dec 4, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 318 | 211 | 01 | 2 | 635 |
| DET | 212 | 27 | 14 | 01 | 1 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:54DETGustav NyquistAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:15DETFrans NielsenAssists: Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:10TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 11:37TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 13:33DETFrans NielsenAssists: Luke Witkowski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 14:27TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 16:26DETFrans NielsenAssists: Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 4:06DETGustav NyquistAssists: Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 9:50TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 14:58TBLCedric PaquetteSHAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.21 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 3. DET Thomas Vanek stopped
- 4. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 5. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 6. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 19:42DETMike Green: Interference2 min
- P3 6:45TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45DETAndreas Athanasiou: Embellishment2 min
- P3 14:02TBLRyan Callahan: Interference2 min
- P3 18:50TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:29DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Paquette – Joseph7:11
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli8:17
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette2:24
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point2:13
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev14:53
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Cernak15:46
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Girardi – Hedman15:26
xG 1.01–0.88 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 2–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin12:31
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Vanek – Athanasiou – Larkin2:24
xG 0.20–0.39 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Glendening – de la Rose – Rasmussen11:45
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou10:02
xG 0.05–0.61 (7%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser13:17
xG 0.91–0.41 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Witkowski3:15
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Witkowski3:13
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).