Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 311 | 112 | 07 | 12 | 532 |
| TOR | 110 | 05 | 315 | 01 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Jake Gardiner, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 5:23DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 6:28DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Jacob de la Rose · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 19:46DETGustav NyquistAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mike Green · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 11:07DETMike GreenAssists: Martin Frk, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 2:38TORJohn TavaresAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 8:50TORZach HymanAssists: Igor Ozhiganov, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 11:36TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Auston Matthews, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 2:48DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:17DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:39DETNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:56TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:33DETNiklas Kronwall: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:36TORPar Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin11:35
xG 1.19–0.32 (79%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Megan – Frk – Ehn4:31
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou8:10
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Glendening – de la Rose – Rasmussen7:49
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 2–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Cholowski5:32
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Jensen17:16
xG 0.86–0.65 (57%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
- Witkowski – Cholowski5:35
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner11:21
xG 1.00–0.56 (64%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Kadri – Johnsson – Kapanen4:47
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews5:39
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Kapanen – Lindholm2:26
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Zaitsev2:26
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev13:29
xG 0.85–0.75 (53%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Rielly2:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).