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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 3:36Shot by Hyman, saved by Bernier
  3. P1 4:06Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Bernier
  4. P1 4:15Shot by Larkin, saved by Sparks
  5. P1 4:50Goal by Kapanen (Gardiner, Johnsson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Kadri, Johnsson, Kapanen, Dermott · DET Abdelkader, Witkowski, Athanasiou, Larkin, Cholowski

  6. P1 5:03Shot by Dermott, saved by Bernier
  7. P1 5:23Goal by Ericsson (Vanek)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Kadri, Johnsson, Kapanen, Dermott, Ozhiganov · DET Nielsen, Ericsson, Vanek, Witkowski, Athanasiou

  8. P1 6:28Goal by Glendening (Kronwall, de la Rose)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Tavares, Hyman, Marner, Zaitsev · DET Kronwall, Green, Glendening, de la Rose, Rasmussen

  9. P1 7:17Abdelkader: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Hainsey, Johnsson, Kapanen, Dermott, Matthews · DET Nielsen, Ericsson, Abdelkader, Jensen, Athanasiou

  10. P1 8:36Shot by Ennis, saved by Bernier5v4
  11. P1 9:02Shot by Kadri, saved by Bernier5v4
  12. P1 10:02Shot by Cholowski, saved by Sparks
  13. P1 11:20Shot by Tavares, saved by Bernier
  14. P1 11:59Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Sparks
  15. P1 12:06Shot by Tavares, saved by Bernier
  16. P1 13:12Shot by Nyquist, saved by Sparks
  17. P1 13:12Shot by Megan, saved by Sparks
  18. P1 14:18Shot by Megan, saved by Sparks
  19. P1 14:21Shot by Ehn, saved by Sparks
  20. P1 15:19Shot by Kapanen, saved by Bernier
  21. P1 15:23Shot by Kapanen, saved by Bernier
  22. P1 16:39Jensen: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Marleau, Gardiner, Nylander, Matthews, Zaitsev · DET Ericsson, Vanek, Jensen, Athanasiou, Larkin

  23. P1 19:31Shot by Larkin, saved by Sparks
  24. P1 19:46Goal by Nyquist (Larkin, Green)5v6+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brown, Kapanen, Dermott, Zaitsev, Lindholm · DET Vanek, Green, Nyquist, Larkin, Cholowski, Rasmussen

  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:44Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Bernier
  28. P2 2:00Shot by Athanasiou, saved by Sparks
  29. P2 2:42Shot by Vanek, saved by Sparks
  30. P2 4:14Shot by Green, saved by Sparks
  31. P2 4:37Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Sparks
  32. P2 8:56Shot by Larkin, saved by Sparks5v6
  33. P2 8:56Marner: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Marleau, Gardiner, Nylander, Matthews, Zaitsev · DET Nielsen, Ericsson, Vanek, Green, Nyquist, Larkin

  34. P2 9:07Shot by Cholowski, saved by Sparks4v5
  35. P2 10:53Shot by Green, saved by Sparks4v5
  36. P2 11:07Goal by Green (Frk, Nyquist)+8 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Hyman, Rielly, Brown, Dermott, Marner · DET Ericsson, Green, Abdelkader, Nyquist, Frk

  37. P2 12:33Kronwall: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Hainsey, Rielly, Johnsson, Kapanen, Matthews · DET Kronwall, Green, Abdelkader, Nyquist, Larkin

  38. P2 13:07Shot by Jensen, saved by Sparks5v4
  39. P2 14:30Shot by Matthews, saved by Bernier5v4
  40. P2 14:49Shot by Dermott, saved by Bernier
  41. P2 14:51Shot by Kadri, saved by Bernier
  42. P2 15:36Lindholm: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Marleau, Brown, Kapanen, Dermott, Zaitsev · DET Kronwall, Ericsson, Jensen, Athanasiou, Ehn

  43. P2 18:24Shot by Green, saved by Sparks
  44. P2 18:30Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Sparks
  45. P2 18:53Shot by Nyquist, saved by Sparks
  46. P2 19:19Kronwall: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Marleau, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Dermott · DET Kronwall, Nielsen, Green, Nyquist, Larkin

  47. P2 19:56Shot by Rielly, saved by Bernier5v4
  48. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 1:26Shot by Dermott, saved by Bernier
  51. P3 2:00Shot by Dermott, saved by Bernier
  52. P3 2:05Shot by Dermott, saved by Bernier
  53. P3 2:38Goal by Tavares (Rielly, Gardiner)+5 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Tavares, Hyman, Rielly, Marner · DET Ericsson, Abdelkader, Nyquist, Jensen, Larkin

  54. P3 4:07Shot by Marleau, saved by Bernier
  55. P3 4:35Shot by Hyman, saved by Bernier
  56. P3 5:34Shot by Nyquist, saved by Sparks
  57. P3 5:35Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Sparks
  58. P3 6:14Shot by Ennis, saved by Bernier
  59. P3 6:37Shot by Gardiner, saved by Bernier
  60. P3 8:08Shot by Larkin, saved by Sparks
  61. P3 8:16Shot by Kadri, saved by Bernier
  62. P3 8:50Goal by Hyman (Ozhiganov, Marner)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Hyman, Dermott, Marner, Ozhiganov · DET Kronwall, Nielsen, Vanek, Green, Athanasiou

  63. P3 10:32Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier
  64. P3 11:36Goal by Johnsson (Matthews, Kapanen)+33 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Johnsson, Kapanen, Matthews, Zaitsev · DET Kronwall, Nielsen, Vanek, Jensen, Athanasiou

  65. P3 12:45Shot by Nielsen, saved by Sparks
  66. P3 14:05Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Bernier
  67. P3 14:35Shot by Athanasiou, saved by Sparks
  68. P3 18:49Shot by Marner, saved by Bernier
  69. P3 19:13Shot by Larkin, saved by Sparks
  70. P3 19:21Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier
  71. P3 19:40Shot by Nyquist, saved by Sparks
  72. P3 0:00Period end
  73. OT 0:00Period start
  74. OT 0:50Shot by Larkin, saved by Sparks3v3
  75. OT 2:24Shot by Marleau, saved by Bernier3v3
  76. OT 2:48Goal by Larkin (Nyquist)3v3+47 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Marner · DET Nyquist, Jensen, Larkin

  77. OT 2:48Period end3v3
  78. OT 2:48Final3v3