Thu, Jan 3, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 119 | 211 | 14 | 434 |
| TOR | 210 | 112 | 019 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:07TORMitch MarnerAssists: Connor Brown, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:38TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 9:10MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Luke Kunin, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 5:09MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 8:16TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 9:36MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Jordan Greenway, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 4:21MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:31TORPar Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:40TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:40MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:47MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:42MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:54MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:09MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Kunin10:13
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Koivu – Niederreiter – Greenway10:51
xG 0.27–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund11:23
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown6:37
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:35
xG 1.21–1.07 (53%)attempts 25–23goals 3–1
- Pateryn – Brodin14:27
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Seeler – Murphy8:01
xG 0.03–0.60 (4%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Brown – Marner11:13
xG 0.94–0.40 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Gauthier – Moore – Lindholm5:09
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen8:49
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Gauthier – Kapanen – Lindholm2:25
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Ozhiganov10:06
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Rielly12:22
xG 0.72–0.68 (51%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Dermott – Zaitsev2:37
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).