Sat, Jan 12, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 111 | 313 | 530 |
| BUF | 216 | 012 | 15 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:47BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:50BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 7:50TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:54BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Jason Pominville, Conor Sheary · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 6:17TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 14:44TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:41TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.19 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:17TBLBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:57TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:25TBLYanni Gourde: Holding2 min
- P3 13:27TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:27BUFJohan Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:50BUFJack Eichel: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:45BUFLawrence Pilut: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Kucherov5:51
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point10:21
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette2:28
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde7:36
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman13:01
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Coburn – Sergachev15:01
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:15
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons10:09
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:10
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Pominville – Sheary – Mittelstadt6:09
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Rodrigues – Thompson10:26
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Pilut11:40
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- McCabe – Dahlin13:51
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen13:34
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 6–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).