Thu, Jan 17, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 28 | 114 | 431 |
| TBL | 110 | 112 | 016 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 11:48TORNazem KadriAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:06TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 13:43TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:49TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: John Tavares, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:09TORZach HymanENAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:32TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:34TORIgor Ozhiganov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:09TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:47TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P2 16:26TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
- P3 1:59TORZach Hyman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Johnsson – Marner11:43
xG 0.64–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:45
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen11:36
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Brown – Gauthier – Lindholm5:18
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev16:22
xG 1.15–0.19 (86%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:19
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov6:39
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov3:04
xG 0.03–0.06 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette5:36
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde8:15
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Erne – Cirelli7:40
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Hedman2:15
xG 0.02–0.08 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak14:53
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman12:04
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).