Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 17 | 19 | 322 |
| TBL | 311 | 211 | 15 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:06TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Danick Martel, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 17:19TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Anton Stralman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 18:06CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 9:13CGYSean MonahanAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 10:10TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 16:11TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Braydon Coburn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 5:01TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 14:11CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:34CGYOliver Kylington: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:45TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:47TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:02CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:57CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:47CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:54TBLRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Hathaway – Ryan2:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett5:53
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett3:04
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Mangiapane2:02
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Kylington6:09
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin8:50
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson7:31
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Erne – Cirelli9:27
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Gourde – Point10:41
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Miller12:15
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Callahan – Paquette – Martel9:12
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh14:20
xG 0.91–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Girardi – Hedman14:31
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:32
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).