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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Calgary Flames 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.

TBL winsCGY wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:43Shot by Stralman, saved by Rittich
  3. P1 3:17Shot by Brodie, saved by Vasilevskiy
  4. P1 4:43Shot by Bennett, saved by Vasilevskiy
  5. P1 5:43Shot by Kucherov, saved by Rittich
  6. P1 5:46Shot by Gourde, saved by Rittich
  7. P1 8:02Shot by Coburn, saved by Rittich
  8. P1 1:50Shot by Andersson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  9. P1 10:30Shot by Callahan, saved by Rittich
  10. P1 10:33Shot by Cirelli, saved by Rittich
  11. P1 10:34Kylington: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Stralman, McDonagh, Martel, Cirelli · CGY Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Andersson, Kylington

  12. P1 10:38Shot by Stamkos, saved by Rittich5v4
  13. P1 10:53Shot by Lindholm, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  14. P1 11:54Goal by Point (Miller, Kucherov)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Miller, Point · CGY Giordano, Backlund, Hamonic, Jankowski

  15. P1 13:40Shot by Hedman, saved by Rittich
  16. P1 16:06Goal by Paquette (Martel, Callahan)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Girardi, Hedman, Paquette, Martel · CGY Frolik, Backlund, Hamonic, Hanifin, Tkachuk

  17. P1 16:54Shot by Neal, saved by Vasilevskiy
  18. P1 17:19Goal by Kucherov (Stralman, Point)+9 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Stralman, McDonagh, Kucherov, Gourde, Point · CGY Giordano, Brodie, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan

  19. P1 17:26Paquette: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Callahan, Paquette, Martel, Sergachev · CGY Hamonic, Hathaway, Mangiapane, Hanifin, Ryan

  20. P1 17:45Killorn: Hooking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Killorn, McDonagh, Cirelli · CGY Giordano, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Tkachuk

  21. P1 18:06Goal by Giordano (Lindholm, Gaudreau)3v5+8 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Stralman, McDonagh · CGY Giordano, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Tkachuk

  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 1:49Shot by Miller, saved by Rittich
  25. P2 2:09Shot by Killorn, saved by Rittich
  26. P2 3:00Shot by Ryan, saved by Vasilevskiy
  27. P2 3:49Shot by Miller, saved by Rittich
  28. P2 6:03Shot by Erne, saved by Rittich
  29. P2 6:37Shot by Killorn, saved by Rittich
  30. P2 6:42Shot by Cirelli, saved by Rittich
  31. P2 8:38Shot by Kucherov, saved by Rittich
  32. P2 9:13Goal by Monahan (Lindholm)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Stamkos, Johnson, Miller, Sergachev · CGY Giordano, Brodie, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan

  33. P2 10:10Goal by Cirelli (Kucherov, Gourde)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Girardi, McDonagh, Kucherov, Gourde, Cirelli · CGY Giordano, Frolik, Backlund, Brodie, Gaudreau

  34. P2 10:49Shot by Killorn, saved by Rittich
  35. P2 12:56Shot by Lindholm, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 13:16Shot by Point, saved by Rittich
  37. P2 13:35Shot by Andersson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  38. P2 14:25Shot by Hanifin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  39. P2 15:03Shot by Ryan, saved by Vasilevskiy
  40. P2 16:11Goal by Gourde (Coburn, Stamkos)+6 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Stamkos, Miller, Gourde, Sergachev · CGY Giordano, Brodie, Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuk

  41. P2 17:10Shot by Neal, saved by Vasilevskiy
  42. P2 18:47Stralman: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Stralman, McDonagh, Kucherov, Gourde, Point · CGY Giordano, Brodie, Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett

  43. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  44. P3 0:00Period start
  45. P3 3:01Shot by Jankowski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P3 3:02Hathaway: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Johnson, Hedman, Miller, Sergachev · CGY Brodie, Jankowski, Hathaway, Mangiapane, Kylington

  47. P3 3:36Shot by Cirelli, saved by Rittich5v4
  48. P3 5:01Goal by Stamkos (Kucherov, Point)5v4+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Stamkos, Kucherov, Miller, Point · CGY Giordano, Hamonic, Gaudreau, Ryan

  49. P3 7:17Shot by Miller, saved by Rittich
  50. P3 7:27Shot by Girardi, saved by Rittich
  51. P3 7:57Mangiapane: High sticking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL Girardi, Stamkos, Johnson, Hedman, Kucherov, Miller · CGY Neal, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Hanifin, Andersson

  52. P3 9:21Shot by Miller, saved by Rittich5v4
  53. P3 9:35Shot by Frolik, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  54. P3 9:47Frolik: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Johnson, Gourde, Cirelli, Sergachev · CGY Frolik, Backlund, Brodie, Hanifin

  55. P3 12:51Shot by Andersson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P3 12:54McDonagh: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Stralman, McDonagh, Paquette, Martel · CGY Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Andersson, Kylington

  57. P3 12:58Shot by Andersson, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  58. P3 14:11Goal by Monahan (Lindholm, Gaudreau)4v50 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Stralman, Gourde, Paquette · CGY Giordano, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Tkachuk

  59. P3 14:53Shot by Mangiapane, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 16:23Shot by Hamonic, saved by Vasilevskiy
  61. P3 19:51Shot by Hanifin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  62. P3 19:59Shot by Brodie, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P3 0:00Period end
  64. P3 0:00Final