Mon, Feb 25, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 116 | 110 | 18 | 334 |
| TOR | 06 | 417 | 110 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 3:48TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake Muzzin, Travis Dermott · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:24TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 5:52TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Jake Gardiner, Trevor Moore · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:07TORTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Frederik Gauthier, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 17:25BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 0:09BUFJack EichelAssists: Jason Pominville, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 17:42TORKasperi KapanenSHAssists: Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:10TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:28TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:56TORNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:53TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Reinhart – Rodrigues10:16
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Okposo – Thompson6:43
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Girgensons7:44
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel13:23
xG 0.91–1.07 (46%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin16:40
xG 1.12–0.44 (72%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Scandella11:19
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe2:12
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Gauthier – Moore5:37
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews11:50
xG 0.67–0.58 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:08
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Marleau – Brown – Nylander10:07
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Rielly2:40
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Dermott13:08
xG 0.82–0.74 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:10
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).