Tue, Feb 26, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 18 | 26 | 07 | 1 | 327 |
| ARI | 09 | 212 | 113 | 06 | 3 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:15ARIDerek StepanAssists: Lawson Crouse, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 14:44FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:15ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 5:46FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Troy Brouwer, Riley Sheahan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 8:15FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 13:31ARIDerek StepanSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Cousins scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. ARI Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. ARI Vinnie Hinostroza scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 18:54FLAJayce Hawryluk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:08FLARiley Stillman: Holding2 min
- P3 8:33FLAJoshua Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:59FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:14ARIBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:37FLAJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sheahan – Hawryluk5:22
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Vatrano8:31
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Brouwer – McGinn – Sheahan3:46
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Vatrano3:41
xG 0.11–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Stillman8:00
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – McCoshen14:57
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad17:42
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Panik – Hinostroza6:08
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller3:12
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Dvorak – Keller5:25
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Stepan – Archibald – Crouse14:02
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson17:17
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun17:00
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Oesterle2:40
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).