Sat, Mar 16, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 19 | 118 | 237 |
| OTT | 117 | 313 | 214 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36OTTCody CeciAssists: Christian Wolanin, Max Veronneau · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:48OTTBrian GibbonsAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 12:33TORMorgan RiellyAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:51OTTMagnus PaajarviGWGAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 18:50OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Zack Smith, Mark Borowiecki · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 5:13TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
- P3 8:36OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Ben Harpur, Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 14:21OTTOscar LindbergAssists: Cody Ceci, Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:30TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P2 9:10TORRon Hainsey: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:12TORPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:27OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:27OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52TORPatrick Marleau: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:05OTTRudolfs Balcers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Gauthier – Moore4:47
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:42
xG 0.78–0.73 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Marleau – Ennis – Kadri3:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Moore2:16
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Rielly6:35
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Holl – Rielly3:17
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–2
- Marincin – Holl9:25
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaajarvi – Tierney – Balcers6:16
xG 0.69–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Pageau – Veronneau – Tkachuk8:31
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Boedker – Gibbons – Duclair5:32
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Ryan – Smith – Lindberg11:49
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Harpur13:24
xG 1.30–0.26 (83%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros12:45
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Ceci – Wolanin17:30
xG 0.83–0.88 (49%)attempts 20–22goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).