Wed, Mar 20, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 019 | 219 | 28 | 446 |
| BUF | 17 | 08 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:43TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Jake Muzzin · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:32TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 0:22TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 5:37BUFAlex NylanderAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:27TORZach HymanENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:19BUFJohan Larsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:10BUFJack Eichel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:16TORZach Hyman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06TORZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:38BUFZemgus Girgensons: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews10:27
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner14:03
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen11:00
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Petan – Moore3:57
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Zaitsev14:49
xG 0.89–0.16 (85%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Rielly11:02
xG 0.97–0.28 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:19
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Eichel – Thompson4:35
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Nylander – Mittelstadt4:21
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Thompson – Mittelstadt3:18
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Rodrigues3:15
xG 0.01–0.11 (7%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:07
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nelson – Dahlin4:07
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Montour – Dahlin7:15
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).