Wed, Mar 20, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
85%
BUF winsTOR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Tavares–Hyman–Marner | Marleau–Kadri–Kapanen | Johnsson–Nylander–Matthews | Brown–Petan–Moore | Muzzin–Zaitsev | Hainsey–Rielly | Hainsey–Holl | Rielly–Ozhiganov | Muzzin–Ozhiganov | Hainsey–Zaitsev | Rielly–Zaitsev | Muzzin–Rielly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okposo–Larsson–Girgensons | 6:400.11–0.23 | 1:020.00–0.00 | 0:390.01–0.00 | 2:320.06–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 3:160.02–0.07 | 1:140.00–0.11 | 2:140.01–0.02 | 0:330.00–0.04 | |||
| Skinner–Reinhart–Eichel | 2:020.02–0.34 | 4:540.13–0.74 | 2:180.01–0.63 | 3:580.14–0.67 | 0:570.00–0.19 | 0:340.02–0.01 | 0:390.15–0.00 | |||||
| Sheary–Rodrigues–Nylander | 3:580.03–0.03 | 1:110.03–0.03 | 0:490.00–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.22 | 1:010.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Sheary–Eichel–Thompson | 1:320.06–0.00 | 1:280.00–0.03 | 1:070.07–0.00 | 2:510.08–0.00 | 1:340.10–0.03 | |||||||
| Sobotka–Nylander–Mittelstadt | 1:240.07–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | 1:140.06–0.02 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 0:400.02–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.02 | 1:160.13–0.00 | |||||
| Sobotka–Thompson–Mittelstadt | 0:480.00–0.03 | 1:010.00–0.06 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.03 | 1:140.10–0.02 | |||||||
| Skinner–Reinhart–Rodrigues | 0:400.00–0.00 | 1:100.01–0.09 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 1:560.00–0.00 | 1:100.01–0.09 | |||||||
| Sheary–Rodrigues–Thompson | 2:400.00–0.17 | 1:150.00–0.17 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Bogosian–Ristolainen | 10:060.15–0.55 | 0:570.00–0.02 | 3:130.00–0.17 | 1:530.10–0.18 | 2:160.03–0.05 | 2:330.07–0.02 | 0:480.00–0.19 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 0:450.15–0.00 | |||
| Scandella–Nelson | 2:230.00–0.00 | 4:040.11–0.12 | 0:590.01–0.02 | 2:460.07–0.00 | 2:290.04–0.12 | 0:590.00–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 1:470.01–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.22 | 0:330.00–0.04 | ||
| Montour–Dahlin | 1:160.02–0.01 | 1:550.00–0.17 | 1:050.00–0.21 | 1:400.10–0.06 | 1:590.00–0.28 | 1:180.00–0.06 | 0:390.00–0.02 | 1:350.10–0.11 | 0:430.17–0.00 | |||
| Scandella–Montour | 2:450.09–0.33 | 0:420.00–0.09 | 1:260.01–0.17 | 2:150.11–0.12 | ||||||||
| Nelson–Dahlin | 0:320.00–0.00 | 2:150.02–0.11 | 0:360.00–0.02 | 1:160.02–0.00 | 1:210.00–0.07 | 1:000.00–0.02 | ||||||
| Ristolainen–Dahlin | 1:140.00–0.00 | 0:360.03–0.03 | 1:090.00–0.03 | |||||||||
| Montour–Nelson | 1:360.05–0.00 | 1:340.06–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Bogosian–Scandella | 0:390.01–0.09 | 0:370.00–0.31 | 0:470.01–0.09 | |||||||||
| Bogosian–Montour | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:470.02–0.05 | ||||||||||
| Scandella–Ristolainen | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Bogosian–Dahlin | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:300.02–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:300.02–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 32 | 25:25 | 0:48 | 1:27 | 5 | 3 |
 Ron HainseyTOR | 33 | 24:21 | 0:44 | 1:20 | 2 | 4 |
 Jake MuzzinTOR | 34 | 24:13 | 0:43 | 1:33 | 4 | 3 |
 Nikita ZaitsevTOR | 32 | 23:41 | 0:44 | 1:50 | 4 | 5 |
 Rasmus RistolainenBUF | 26 | 22:42 | 0:52 | 1:31 | 4 | 7 |
 Zach BogosianBUF | 26 | 22:31 | 0:52 | 2:06 | 2 | 7 |
 Mitch MarnerTOR | 31 | 22:30 | 0:44 | 1:40 | 6 | 4 |
 Jack EichelBUF | 24 | 20:27 | 0:51 | 1:51 | 5 | 4 |
 John TavaresTOR | 27 | 19:57 | 0:44 | 1:29 | 6 | 5 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 24 | 19:39 | 0:49 | 1:31 | 5 | 3 |
 Marco ScandellaBUF | 25 | 19:11 | 0:46 | 1:20 | 2 | 3 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 23 | 18:06 | 0:47 | 1:15 | 4 | 7 |
 Jeff SkinnerBUF | 22 | 17:47 | 0:49 | 1:28 | 5 | 5 |
 Evan RodriguesBUF | 26 | 17:33 | 0:41 | 1:05 | 6 | 4 |
 Casey NelsonBUF | 24 | 17:32 | 0:44 | 1:19 | 3 | 5 |
 Sam ReinhartBUF | 22 | 17:31 | 0:48 | 1:43 | 5 | 5 |
 William NylanderTOR | 23 | 17:23 | 0:45 | 1:17 | 3 | 1 |
 Patrick MarleauTOR | 24 | 17:18 | 0:43 | 1:34 | 7 | 2 |
 Zach HymanTOR | 24 | 17:12 | 0:43 | 1:40 | 3 | 5 |
 Brandon MontourBUF | 20 | 16:44 | 0:50 | 1:56 | 3 | 5 |
 Kasperi KapanenTOR | 23 | 15:56 | 0:42 | 1:17 | 8 | 4 |
 Nazem KadriTOR | 20 | 15:56 | 0:48 | 1:16 | 10 | 1 |
 Conor ShearyBUF | 21 | 15:42 | 0:45 | 1:39 | 5 | 2 |
 Andreas JohnssonTOR | 22 | 15:01 | 0:41 | 1:06 | 5 | 1 |
 Johan LarssonBUF | 22 | 14:25 | 0:39 | 1:03 | 1 | 9 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 22 | 14:02 | 0:38 | 1:10 | 1 | 9 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 19 | 13:15 | 0:42 | 1:03 | 2 | 8 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 16 | 12:16 | 0:46 | 1:43 | 3 | 0 |
 Vladimir SobotkaBUF | 16 | 12:15 | 0:46 | 1:21 | 4 | 0 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 17 | 12:08 | 0:43 | 1:10 | 4 | 1 |
 Alex NylanderBUF | 15 | 10:50 | 0:43 | 1:05 | 2 | 1 |
 Igor OzhiganovTOR | 11 | 8:42 | 0:47 | 1:15 | 2 | 2 |
 Nic PetanTOR | 11 | 7:47 | 0:42 | 1:17 | 1 | 0 |
 Connor BrownTOR | 14 | 7:47 | 0:33 | 0:58 | 2 | 1 |
 Justin HollTOR | 11 | 7:43 | 0:42 | 1:31 | 2 | 0 |
 Trevor MooreTOR | 10 | 5:41 | 0:34 | 1:03 | 1 | 0 |