Mon, Apr 1, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 210 | 211 | 526 |
| OTT | 111 | 04 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:48OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:48TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 13:43TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 4:34OTTMax VeronneauPPAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Christian Wolanin · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 5:22TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Braydon Coburn, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 16:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:39TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:51OTTBrian Gibbons: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:34OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:21OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:21TBLCameron Gaunce: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 3:21TBLCameron Gaunce: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 6:24TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P3 9:17TBLBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Joseph10:38
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Gourde – Point12:12
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Miller – Paquette – Erne7:48
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli7:43
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGaunce – Rutta9:55
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak14:26
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Rutta2:33
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pageau – Duclair – Tkachuk6:25
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Paajarvi – Lindberg2:42
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Lindberg – Duclair3:00
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Balcers3:22
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Wolanin14:15
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–3
- Harpur – Jaros12:29
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot13:45
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).