Mon, Oct 7, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 215 | 18 | 330 |
| TOR | 015 | 211 | 08 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:30STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Binnington · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 11:34TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Jason Spezza, Nic Petan · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 11:58TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Cody Ceci, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 19:12STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 7:51STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: David Perron, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:22STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P2 2:36TORRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P2 16:22STLCarl Gunnarsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:39TORTrevor Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:39STLCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min
- P3 15:03TORJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Sundqvist – Barbashev8:11
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Bozak – Sanford – Fabbri5:43
xG 0.04–0.09 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:43
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Blais9:52
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dunn8:20
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn2:39
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Faulk4:19
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Petan – Gauthier4:25
xG 0.75–0.05 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews10:15
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner12:15
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev7:18
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Barrie12:54
xG 1.46–0.15 (91%)attempts 23–8goals 1–2
- Rielly – Ceci12:24
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Ceci2:09
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).