Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 414 | 110 | 29 | 733 |
| TOR | 313 | 011 | 04 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 4:19TORAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 7:46TORJohn TavaresAssists: Justin Holl, Kasperi Kapanen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 11:24TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 12:45TBLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P1 17:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake Muzzin, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
- P1 19:17TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
- P2 10:46TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 3:56TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev · Deflected, 0.02 xG6–3
- P3 6:57TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.17 xG7–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:16TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:42TORJason Spezza: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:23TORKasperi Kapanen: Interference2 min
- P1 18:27TORNic Petan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point14:39
xG 1.41–0.37 (79%)attempts 19–13goals 3–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli11:58
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Joseph9:58
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev13:56
xG 1.29–0.49 (73%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Coburn – Shattenkirk9:58
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:15
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:30
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Spezza – Petan – Gauthier8:27
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev10:35
xG 0.27–0.61 (30%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner12:02
xG 0.31–0.81 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl2:50
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Barrie – Sandin2:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Holl – Rielly2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).