Wed, Oct 16, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 09 | 111 | 01 | 228 |
| PIT | 112 | 19 | 010 | 12 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16COLMatt CalvertAssists: Matt Nieto, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 17:22PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Justin Schultz, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:30PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 2:56COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- OT 3:57PITBrandon TanevSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:09COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:51COLIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:45COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55PITDominik Kahun: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:36PITSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:38PITBrian Dumoulin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:46
xG 1.11–0.74 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare8:40
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost9:40
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky9:20
xG 0.12–0.66 (16%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar4:45
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Barberio – Makar6:11
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Barberio – Graves5:16
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lafferty – Kahun7:10
xG 0.52–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese12:47
xG 0.37–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Blandisi – Lafferty2:53
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon16:13
xG 1.03–1.27 (45%)attempts 15–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson12:14
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Marino12:12
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:58
xG 0.77–0.83 (48%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).