Sat, Nov 9, 2019·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 117 | 013 | 213 | 343 |
| TBL | 112 | 218 | 210 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–0
- P1 17:02TBLPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Kevin Shattenkirk · Deflected, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 1:58TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P2 19:57TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Cedric Paquette, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 4:14BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 9:48TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–4
- P3 10:55TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 19:22BUFJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:40TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:07BUFBrandon Montour: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51BUFMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:43BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 16:14TBLCedric Paquette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:14TBLCedric Paquette: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:59TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:59BUFSam Reinhart: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Skinner – Sheary – Rodrigues8:06
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Mittelstadt10:09
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons6:59
xG 0.00–0.01 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:31
xG 0.04–0.06 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Miller – Jokiharju14:16
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:47
xG 0.04–0.04 (55%)attempts 20–12goals 0–2
- Montour – Dahlin14:32
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette12:04
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Volkov9:01
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point11:18
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli10:06
xG 0.02–0.03 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Cernak17:44
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Hedman4:05
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Sergachev – Rutta4:12
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).