Sat, Nov 16, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 19 | 19 | 223 |
| BUF | 013 | 26 | 213 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:28BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 6:04OTTAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 9:39BUFJack EichelAssists: Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 2:01OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Ron Hainsey, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:13BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:46BUFJack EichelENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:51BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P1 7:56OTTDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P1 11:13OTTTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:58BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:09BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Paul10:53
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Duclair – Brown – Tkachuk9:02
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ennis – Namestnikov – White8:16
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Chlapik6:18
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Brannstrom10:50
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo14:53
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev17:43
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Sheary – Rodrigues11:30
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Vesey – Asplund2:40
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Asplund3:33
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel11:46
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen14:57
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Scandella – Jokiharju13:08
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen3:58
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).