Sat, Nov 23, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 415 | 03 | 110 | 528 |
| COL | 18 | 113 | 116 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Erik Johnson, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:49TORNicholas ShoreAssists: Pierre Engvall, Justin Holl · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 10:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Tyson Barrie, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 13:22TORTyson BarriePPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P1 17:36TORKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 10:21COLAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 6:54COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:59TORZach HymanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:00COLIan Cole: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P2 8:56TORJustin Holl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:19TORAlexander Kerfoot: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:32COLNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Mikheyev15:17
xG 1.29–0.86 (60%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews11:16
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Shore – Gauthier – Engvall4:05
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Kerfoot – Kapanen6:34
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:17
xG 1.30–0.73 (64%)attempts 22–14goals 2–1
- Barrie – Dermott10:56
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Rielly – Ceci16:41
xG 0.24–0.71 (25%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Burakovsky – MacKinnon6:12
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Bellemare – O'Connor6:02
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Tynan – Nichushkin – Bellemare3:20
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – MacKinnon9:31
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard9:32
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar10:10
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov3:39
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).