Thu, Dec 5, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 011 | 28 | 329 |
| CGY | 19 | 211 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:42CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:18CGYTobias RiederSHAssists: Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 15:02CGYSean MonahanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 3:58CGYMilan LucicGWGAssists: Derek Ryan, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 17:16BUFJake McCabeAssists: Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:12BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:54CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:23CGYMichael Frolik: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:00CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:58BUFJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:17CGYOliver Kylington: Interference2 min
- P3 4:21CGYOliver Kylington: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:24CGYNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:03BUFJimmy Vesey: Holding2 min
- P3 18:32CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Girgensons – Vesey – Asplund2:09
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Skinner – Sheary8:18
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:30
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Mittelstadt9:14
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Ristolainen4:28
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- McCabe – Montour4:53
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Jokiharju3:06
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rieder – Jankowski5:33
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan4:13
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk8:23
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Ryan4:30
xG 0.21–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington11:02
xG 1.22–0.37 (77%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie11:14
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Brodie – Hanifin2:07
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).