Tue, Dec 17, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 010 | 315 | 330 |
| TOR | 111 | 213 | 29 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30TORFrederik GauthierUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:47TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 17:39TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 1:29BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 4:58TORDmytro TimashovGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Frederik Gauthier · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 6:30BUFJack EichelAssists: Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 14:41BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Conor Sheary, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 17:26TORIlya MikheyevENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:06BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:47TORJohn Tavares: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 15:31TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel16:41
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:00
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Johansson – Larsson – Skinner2:13
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Rodrigues6:55
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju13:24
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Montour – Dahlin16:44
xG 0.66–0.78 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 2–2
- Ristolainen – Jokiharju3:52
xG 0.10–0.29 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Kapanen – Matthews12:19
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:33
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Spezza – Gauthier – Timashov6:21
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev10:59
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Rielly14:28
xG 1.28–0.34 (79%)attempts 18–16goals 3–0
- Ceci – Dermott11:49
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ceci2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).