Tue, Dec 31, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 315 | 39 | 627 |
| BUF | 110 | 39 | 09 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:03BUFConor ShearyAssists: Curtis Lazar · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:12BUFMarcus JohanssonAssists: Conor Sheary, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 7:00TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 8:12BUFJimmy VeseyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Conor Sheary · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 9:56BUFJack EichelSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 13:57TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 16:55TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 6:20TBLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 8:08TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 19:57TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Alex Killorn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:03TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:29BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:08TBLLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:08BUFDalton Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:21BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:08BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34TBLMikhail Sergachev: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:34BUFJake McCabe: Instigator2 min
- P2 8:34BUFJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:34BUFJake McCabe: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 11:06TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 12:59BUFMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:07TBLMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:42TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point5:35
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point3:23
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Maroon – Paquette2:46
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens2:19
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev10:47
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Hedman7:37
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Hedman2:28
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Vesey – Sheary4:29
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Johansson – Sheary – Asplund5:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons7:44
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:42
xG 0.48–0.83 (37%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen5:46
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Scandella – Jokiharju6:41
xG 0.39–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Montour – Dahlin11:08
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).