Tue, Dec 31, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
23%
9%
62%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Stamkos–Kucherov–Point | Killorn–Stamkos–Cirelli | Johnson–Palat–Cirelli | Palat–Kucherov–Point | Killorn–Maroon–Paquette | Johnson–Gourde–Verhaeghe | Maroon–Gourde–Paquette | Gourde–Verhaeghe–Stephens | Maroon–Paquette–Stephens | Johnson–Verhaeghe–Stephens | McDonagh–Cernak | Shattenkirk–Sergachev | Schenn–Hedman | Shattenkirk–Hedman | McDonagh–Hedman | McDonagh–Sergachev | McDonagh–Schenn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinhart–Olofsson–Eichel | 2:190.01–0.14 | 2:530.01–0.06 | 1:330.10–0.13 | 1:130.07–0.21 | 0:410.00–0.11 | 1:000.02–0.03 | 0:370.13–0.04 | 4:190.25–0.31 | 2:460.06–0.23 | 1:590.02–0.11 | 0:590.12–0.06 | 0:460.00–0.11 | |||||
| Okposo–Larsson–Girgensons | 1:570.00–0.12 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:420.01–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.01 | 1:080.02–0.00 | 1:470.00–0.04 | 2:050.00–0.01 | 1:340.00–0.07 | 0:500.01–0.00 | |||||||
| Johansson–Sheary–Asplund | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:130.01–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 1:270.02–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 2:110.01–0.00 | 0:350.15–0.00 | ||||||||
| Johansson–Vesey–Sheary | 0:310.11–0.00 | 1:170.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 0:450.03–0.00 | 0:510.11–0.00 | 1:170.00–0.00 | 1:020.11–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Okposo–Vesey–Lazar | 1:160.00–0.11 | ||||||||||||||||
| Smith–Vesey–Lazar | 1:100.06–0.00 | 0:370.06–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Vesey–Lazar–Sheary | 1:020.00–0.00 | 1:020.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Montour–Dahlin | 1:400.01–0.14 | 0:550.10–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.11 | 1:170.00–0.01 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:160.06–0.04 | 1:150.03–0.00 | 3:040.06–0.14 | 2:510.00–0.09 | 2:500.12–0.11 | 0:500.12–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.01 | 0:330.18–0.00 | |||
| Scandella–Jokiharju | 0:560.01–0.02 | 1:150.06–0.06 | 1:320.00–0.01 | 0:400.13–0.00 | 1:040.13–0.01 | 1:270.09–0.02 | 1:540.00–0.00 | 0:550.01–0.06 | |||||||||
| McCabe–Ristolainen | 2:100.11–0.06 | 0:480.01–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 2:010.46–0.00 | 1:340.00–0.12 | 1:040.01–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Ristolainen–Dahlin | 1:050.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.02 | 0:480.00–0.03 | 0:410.02–0.02 | 1:110.12–0.02 | 0:520.00–0.02 | |||||||||||
| Scandella–Ristolainen | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.11 | 0:370.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Scandella–Montour | 1:190.00–0.01 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.07 | ||||||||||||||
| Montour–Jokiharju | 0:350.00–0.07 | ||||||||||||||||
| McCabe–Jokiharju | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Ristolainen–Montour | 0:420.02–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:420.02–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Victor HedmanTBL | 29 | 25:23 | 0:53 | 1:58 | 4 | 2 |
 Jack EichelBUF | 24 | 25:13 | 1:03 | 5:04 | 5 | 1 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 22 | 24:25 | 1:07 | 2:20 | 5 | 1 |
 Rasmus RistolainenBUF | 28 | 24:23 | 0:52 | 1:59 | 5 | 9 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 24 | 23:24 | 0:59 | 1:48 | 1 | 6 |
 Sam ReinhartBUF | 25 | 22:42 | 0:54 | 2:16 | 6 | 0 |
 Victor OlofssonBUF | 23 | 22:05 | 0:58 | 2:16 | 5 | 0 |
 Brandon MontourBUF | 26 | 21:31 | 0:50 | 1:34 | 2 | 2 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 23 | 20:53 | 0:54 | 2:00 | 5 | 3 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 27 | 20:16 | 0:45 | 1:39 | 4 | 4 |
 Marcus JohanssonBUF | 20 | 19:45 | 0:59 | 2:39 | 4 | 4 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 19 | 19:25 | 1:01 | 1:59 | 5 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 19 | 18:44 | 0:59 | 1:59 | 6 | 1 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 26 | 18:42 | 0:43 | 1:48 | 2 | 7 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 25 | 18:25 | 0:44 | 1:22 | 1 | 6 |
 Kevin ShattenkirkTBL | 22 | 17:24 | 0:47 | 1:32 | 2 | 1 |
 Marco ScandellaBUF | 23 | 17:21 | 0:45 | 1:34 | 0 | 3 |
 Mikhail SergachevTBL | 23 | 16:59 | 0:44 | 1:32 | 2 | 2 |
 Conor ShearyBUF | 19 | 15:00 | 0:47 | 1:31 | 3 | 3 |
 Johan LarssonBUF | 18 | 14:37 | 0:49 | 1:34 | 0 | 5 |
 Henri JokiharjuBUF | 22 | 13:53 | 0:38 | 1:06 | 1 | 2 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 19 | 13:45 | 0:43 | 1:34 | 2 | 2 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 19 | 13:34 | 0:43 | 1:36 | 2 | 2 |
 Ondrej PalatTBL | 19 | 13:32 | 0:43 | 1:17 | 1 | 2 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 20 | 13:18 | 0:40 | 1:20 | 0 | 4 |
 Jimmy VeseyBUF | 19 | 12:50 | 0:41 | 1:27 | 3 | 3 |
 Cedric PaquetteTBL | 22 | 12:40 | 0:35 | 1:12 | 1 | 5 |
 Tyler JohnsonTBL | 19 | 12:17 | 0:39 | 1:23 | 3 | 3 |
 Luke SchennTBL | 20 | 11:51 | 0:36 | 1:06 | 1 | 1 |
 Jake McCabeBUF | 15 | 11:47 | 0:47 | 1:11 | 4 | 5 |
 Patrick MaroonTBL | 18 | 11:09 | 0:37 | 1:20 | 2 | 2 |
 Curtis LazarBUF | 18 | 9:19 | 0:31 | 1:02 | 3 | 5 |
 Rasmus AsplundBUF | 15 | 8:21 | 0:33 | 1:23 | 0 | 3 |
 Mitchell StephensTBL | 14 | 7:42 | 0:33 | 0:57 | 0 | 2 |
 Carter VerhaegheTBL | 12 | 7:40 | 0:38 | 1:15 | 1 | 1 |
 Dalton SmithBUF | 4 | 1:26 | 0:22 | 0:38 | 1 | 0 |