Tue, Jan 14, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 28 | 18 | 328 |
| ARI | 19 | 217 | 314 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03ARIPhil KesselAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:01ARIPhil KesselPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 6:42SJSKevin LabancAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:55SJSTimo MeierAssists: Patrick Marleau, Antti Suomela · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 17:14ARITaylor HallAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 8:09ARILawson CrouseGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.28 xG2–4
- P3 17:51SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 18:20ARIConor GarlandENAssists: Taylor Hall, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–5
- P3 19:38ARITaylor HallENAssists: Lawson Crouse, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:37SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:56SJSStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:21ARIConor Garland: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:07ARIAdin Hill: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Karlsson – Kellman6:18
xG 0.38–0.32 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Noesen – Kellman2:57
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Hertl – Labanc13:07
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Goodrow8:56
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Simek2:17
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon16:30
xG 0.70–0.78 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Burns – Karlsson2:53
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Dvorak – Garland13:01
xG 1.14–0.37 (75%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse12:14
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller11:51
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza5:23
xG 0.10–0.26 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun16:51
xG 1.27–0.59 (68%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle12:03
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun2:26
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).