Thu, Feb 6, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 09 | 14 | 01 | 2 | 421 |
| BUF | 08 | 08 | 314 | 02 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23DETDylan LarkinAssists: Trevor Daley, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:59DETDylan LarkinAssists: Robby Fabbri, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 5:48BUFJimmy VeseyAssists: Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 8:29BUFScott WilsonAssists: Colin Miller · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 13:56DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Madison Bowey · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 19:13BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 2. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. DET Andreas Athanasiou scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:56DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
- P1 18:45DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:52BUFJack Eichel: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:29DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:59BUFJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:03BUFJimmy Vesey: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:03DETAlex Biega: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:00DETGivani Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:13BUFEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Athanasiou – Hirose2:21
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Larkin – Fabbri2:30
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Larkin – Fabbri2:42
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Lindstrom9:30
xG 0.24–0.52 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Biega – Nemeth15:15
xG 0.04–0.50 (7%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Bowey – Hronek13:44
xG 0.19–1.09 (15%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Reinhart – Eichel12:35
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lazar – Rodrigues8:17
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Girgensons5:48
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Frolik – Johansson – Sheary4:59
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Montour2:02
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- McCabe – Jokiharju11:51
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Miller – Pilut10:02
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).