Sat, Feb 29, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 29 | 16 | 321 |
| TBL | 113 | 314 | 06 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:05TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 11:50TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Cedric Paquette, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 13:12CGYAndrew MangiapaneSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 14:04CGYElias LindholmAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 14:57TBLAlex KillornSHGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:11CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:09CGYDillon Dube: Holding2 min
- P2 5:27CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:52TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:19CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:49CGYTJ Brodie: Interference2 min
- P3 17:04TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk17:17
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett4:33
xG 0.03–0.34 (8%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube4:01
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:52
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Gustafsson9:14
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Hanifin2:27
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:52
xG 0.19–0.76 (20%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Goodrow – Gourde8:10
xG 1.30–0.07 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Coleman – Cirelli12:46
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Maroon – Paquette – Stephens7:27
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point12:27
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Bogosian9:39
xG 1.04–0.17 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak16:23
xG 0.78–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Shattenkirk2:58
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).