Sat, Feb 29, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 19 | 18 | 01 | 0 | 328 |
| OTT | 011 | 110 | 212 | 06 | 1 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59DETFrans NielsenAssists: Adam Erne · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 6:59DETDylan LarkinAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 13:42OTTArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Mike Reilly, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:48OTTScott SabourinAssists: Matthew Peca, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 6:09OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Jayce Hawryluk, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 7:46DETSam GagnerPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mike Reilly stopped
- 2. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 3. OTT Artem Anisimov scored
- 4. DET Robby Fabbri stopped
- 5. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 6. DET Tyler Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:17DETSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:13OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:15DETJonathan Bernier: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31DETAlex Biega: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:27OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 2:26DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Erne – Timashov2:41
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne6:49
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Filppula – Mantha – Timashov2:18
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Gagner – Mantha12:05
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek5:09
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Daley – Lindstrom7:06
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Biega2:43
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Paul – Hawryluk11:13
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Boedker – Peca – Sabourin6:55
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Balcers2:14
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk2:21
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev18:39
xG 1.19–0.74 (62%)attempts 26–24goals 0–0
- Englund – Jaros8:13
xG 0.55–0.42 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot19:39
xG 0.58–0.66 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).