Fri, Jan 15, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 111 | 14 | 323 |
| OTT | 16 | 39 | 19 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59TORZach HymanPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 19:16OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Josh Norris · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 9:15TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Justin Holl, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 10:28OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Josh Norris · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 12:32OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Braydon Coburn, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 15:03OTTChris TierneyGWGAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 6:15OTTDerek StepanAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
- P3 7:07TORJohn TavaresPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:34OTTDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:09OTTCedric Paquette: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:10TORTravis Dermott: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:48TORJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:42OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:20TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:43OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P3 6:35OTTAustin Watson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:04TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:36TORWayne Simmonds: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:36OTTConnor Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:36TORJimmy Vesey: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marner – Matthews11:33
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Vesey – Nylander7:04
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev8:00
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Barabanov2:59
xG 0.07–0.52 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl11:41
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dermott7:06
xG 0.28–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott2:54
xG 0.02–0.21 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk6:17
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Watson – Paquette5:09
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Tierney – Brown – Paul10:40
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stepan – Stützle6:29
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev11:48
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Coburn – Brown9:12
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Wolanin9:17
xG 0.57–0.56 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).