Sat, Jan 16, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 119 | 111 | 340 |
| OTT | 17 | 05 | 17 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:55OTTNick PaulAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:17TORJoe ThorntonAssists: Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:10TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 2:42TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:44OTTTim StützleAssists: Thomas Chabot, Colin White · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:26TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:04OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:49OTTCedric Paquette: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 13:50TORIlya Mikheyev: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:30TORMitch Marner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:50OTTJoshua Brown: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27TORZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:11OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marner – Matthews9:32
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Tavares – Vesey – Nylander8:06
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev6:52
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:11
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:05
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Dermott6:52
xG 0.34–0.40 (45%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk6:51
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Stepan – Stützle4:04
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Paquette – Brown2:01
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Batherson – Tkachuk2:42
xG 0.04–0.07 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev15:34
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Coburn – Brown10:02
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Reilly14:02
xG 0.41–0.66 (39%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).