Sun, Jan 24, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 4, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 016 | 219 | 18 | 05 | 1 | 448 |
| WSH | 19 | 19 | 19 | 04 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58WSHJustin SchultzUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 10:07BUFColin MillerPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:51WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Justin Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:04BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 7:24BUFEric StaalPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 9:28WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 2. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 3. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 4. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:21WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:23BUFJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:20WSHZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:07WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:46WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:50BUFBrandon Montour: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:33WSHJustin Schultz: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHall – Reinhart – Eichel6:37
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel7:38
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Okposo – Hall5:28
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Mittelstadt3:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Montour2:17
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Jokiharju12:39
xG 0.84–0.68 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Montour2:22
xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPinho – Sheary – Sprong6:41
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Panik – McMichael8:01
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana12:16
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:58
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Siegenthaler11:20
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Dillon13:12
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dillon2:10
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).