Mon, Feb 22, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 211 | 210 | 432 |
| CAR | 17 | 112 | 017 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:27CARJesper FastAssists: Martin Necas, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:26TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:12TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 19:15CARJesper FastPPAssists: Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 8:04TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Jan Rutta, Brayden Point · Deflected, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 19:20TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:52CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:52CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:22TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:39CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:03TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:15TBLBrayden Point: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 2:01CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Coleman – Point10:07
xG 1.09–0.07 (94%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Barré-Boulet7:24
xG 0.64–0.10 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Goodrow – Volkov6:40
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Joseph9:31
xG 0.19–0.62 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev6:40
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:04
xG 0.67–0.52 (57%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Hedman – Rutta9:21
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Paquette – Lorentz7:26
xG 0.78–0.08 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas11:05
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Foegele9:42
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- McGinn – Aho – Svechnikov11:05
xG 0.42–1.11 (28%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Bean10:08
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:06
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:08
xG 0.93–1.32 (41%)attempts 18–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).