Tue, Jan 26, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 15 | 16 | 421 |
| CGY | 01 | 218 | 17 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44TORWayne SimmondsAssists: Justin Holl, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:16TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:08CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 2:09TORTravis BoydAssists: Pierre Engvall, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 14:21CGYMilan LucicAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 9:03CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 12:14TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:50TORPierre Engvall: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:56CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:13CGYDerek Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:59TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:28TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:41TORJoey Anderson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00TORJake Muzzin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Vesey – Kerfoot7:08
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Boyd – Engvall – Anderson8:16
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev10:50
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews13:36
xG 0.64–1.01 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:50
xG 1.04–0.78 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Lehtonen9:02
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Bogosian2:51
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk12:30
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Simon13:05
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Bennett6:26
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Nordstrom – Leivo – Ryan4:35
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin17:35
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki12:43
xG 0.86–0.80 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–3
- Giordano – Andersson16:46
xG 0.73–0.75 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).